NFIB Survey Signals Economic Warning for Small Businesses The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) served as a stark economic warning, contrasting sharply with more positive reports from the government. We recently discussed the crucial role small business owners play in the economy, emphasizing that they ...
Stocks Face Resistance as Fed Reserves Decline: Analysis The movement of funds in the US central bank reserves, or their monthly fluctuations, indicates further potential resistance for stocks in the near term. Even though the Federal Reserve is gradually reducing its quantitative easing measures, the reserves held by banks are still signific...
Fringe Finance Expert Larry Lepard's Investor Letter Reveals Market Insights Lawrence Lepard, known for his insights in Fringe Finance, shared his latest investor letter recently, receiving limited attention from mainstream media. However, this lack of coverage actually underscores why his perspectives are particularly noteworthy. In the lett...
Rising Yield Curve Steepens Funding Risk: Market Alert The growing risk of tightening in US funding markets is becoming more apparent as the yield curve steepens, with long-term yields rising faster than short-term ones. This is driven by several factors, including more attractive yields on short-term bills and increasing interest payments on...
Stock Market Showing Similarities to 2022 Plunge, Caution Advised The recent decline in stock prices is reminiscent of patterns observed during the stock market downturn in 2022, serving as a cautionary signal for current equity investors. Over the past 11 trading days leading up to Monday, the S&P 500 has dropped in value for seven of th...
Debate Rages on Wall Street: Are Interest Rate Hikes Fueling US Economic Growth? As the US economy continues to perform strongly month after month, creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs and surprising experts who had predicted a looming downturn, some on Wall Street are beginning to consider a fringe economic theory. They're questioning ...
Inflation Concerns Resurface: Market Reacts to CPI Data and Geopolitical Tensions Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reminded everyone that inflation is still a concern. Despite brushing off the higher inflation data in January and February, the market took notice of March's hotter inflation reading. This shifted expectations of when t...
Housing Starts Plunge, Permits Drop: What's Next for Homebuilders? The recent ups and downs in housing permits, starts, and completions are poised to continue, as seen in the latest data. Following a significant surge of 10.7% in February, housing starts plummeted by 14.7% month-over-month in March, a much steeper decline than the anticipated...
Rethinking Monetary Policy: Addressing the Risks of Interest Rate Manipulation In discussions about monetary policy, it often seems that people overlook the critical role interest rates play in reflecting inflation and risk. Interest rates essentially represent the cost of taking on risk, and when manipulated downwards, they can contribute to...
Cross-Asset Volatility Surges Amid Geopolitical Tensions Volatility is on the rise across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and even FX. This surge is not solely due to recent geopolitical tensions but has roots in pre-existing conditions. Volatility had been decreasing overall since October, but in rece...
Volatility Spikes Signal Market Turbulence Ahead Last week, Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett observed a notable reaction in the volatility market, signaling a significant increase in their "US Panic Index" and its impact on the spot VIX, suggesting more turbulence ahead for the VIX. This aligns with their previous advice in mid-March to pur...
BofA Analysts Nailed Hot Retail Sales Forecast Before today's release of retail sales data, Bank of America's highly knowledgeable analysts predicted a significant increase in the core figures... ...and their prediction was right on the money. Following a surprising jump in retail sales last month, mainly driven by Motor Vehicle & Parts s...
US Inflation Surges Again, Posing Challenges for Fed Policy If you weren't completely cut off from news, you'd know that once again, US consumer prices surged unexpectedly, causing a headache for those hoping for a softer inflation narrative and making President Biden's re-election prospects tied to a Federal Reserve rate cut more complicated...
Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 15 : U.S. Inflation Surprises, China's Weak Data Spark Concerns In the U.S., inflation didn't meet expectations, surpassing projections in the U.S. and falling short in China. This led to a decline in major equity indices for the week due to concerns about potential conflict in the Middle East and persistent infl...
Central Banks Diverge as Gold Surges and Euro Slips As we approach the weekend, gold prices have hit an all-time high and the euro has dropped below 1.07 for the first time since November last year, possibly due to concerns about a potential attack on Israel by Iran or its proxies. This week signifies a significant shift away from synchronize...
Market Bets on 1970s Inflation Revival, Despite Fed's Efforts After spending the past couple of years rectifying his significant error from 2020/21, during which Powell flooded the market with excessive liquidity, triggering the second most significant inflation surge in modern US history (only overshadowed by the almost hyperinflation of the...