BofA Analysts Nailed Hot Retail Sales Forecast

BofA Analysts Nailed Hot Retail Sales Forecast 

Before today's release of retail sales data, Bank of America's highly knowledgeable analysts predicted a significant increase in the core figures...

...and their prediction was right on the money.

Following a surprising jump in retail sales last month, mainly driven by Motor Vehicle & Parts sales, the consensus was for another rise this month, albeit at a slower pace. However, actual (nominal) retail sales shot up by 0.7% compared to the previous month, exceeding the expected 0.4% increase, resulting in a 4.0% year-on-year change...

Interestingly, when adjusted for seasonal factors, the year-on-year growth in retail sales slowed, and sales at gasoline stations actually decreased, albeit slightly...

The core retail sales figures were even more impressive - excluding auto sales, they rose by 1.1% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.5% increase, and excluding both auto and gas sales, they increased by 1.0% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3% increase...

Looking deeper, while sales of Motor Vehicles & Parts experienced a significant decline after last month's surge, sales at Nonstore Retailers (online retail) and Gas Stations saw substantial increases...

Sales at Department Stores, Electronics & Appliances also experienced declines last month...

The core-control group, which is used in calculating GDP, surged by 1.1% month-on-month, marking its largest increase since February 2023...

It's important to note that these figures are all nominal and do not account for the rise in prices, particularly in gasoline. So, are Americans spending more but getting less in real terms?

Adjusting crudely for inflation, there was a significant drop in 'real' retail sales (non-seasonally adjusted), with real retail sales declining in 12 out of the last 17 months...