Inflation Rises in November, Driven by Shelter and Food Costs  The past four months have seen a consistent acceleration in monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth. Analysts had anticipated that November's CPI data would continue this upward trend, predicting a 0.3% increase month-over-month (MoM). Their expectations proved accurate, with Nov...

Strong Jobs Data Shifts Focus to CPI as Inflation Fears Resurface  Before last week's jobs report, hardly anyone expected todays CPI data to have much impact on the market. The Fed had signaled that it believes inflation is under control, kicking off a new easing cycle with a major rate cut last month, with plans for more cuts by the end ...

Inflation Data and Nvidia Earnings Highlight Key Economic Events  Next week, inflation will be a key focus, with significant reports such as the US PCE, preliminary August CPI data in Europe, and Tokyo's CPI. Galina Pozdnyakova from Deutsche Bank also notes that consumer confidence and economic activity indicators will be released across major...

CPI Falls 0.1% in June, Fueling Rate Cut Speculations  Heading into today's CPI release, expectations were high for more signs of a return to disinflation. These expectations were exceeded as headline consumer prices fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, contrasting with the forecasted 0.1% increase, marking the largest month-over-month decline ...

Fed Signals September Rate Cut Amid CPI Expectations  Nick Timiraos has published two previews of a September rate cut within 24 hours, just as expected, following the guidance of his Federal Reserve sources. The message is clear: while the Fed may not cut rates at the July FOMC meeting, it will strongly indicate that a cut in September is imm...

PPI Falls Unexpectedly, Jobless Claims Surge: Economic Reality Check  After a softer-than-expected CPI report triggered a buying frenzy in stocks and bonds (until Powell dampened the enthusiasm), today's PPI is anticipated to be mixed, with a smaller month-over-month increase but a higher year-over-year rise, surpassing the 12-month highs reco...

Stocks and Bonds React Differently to ISM, Payrolls, and CPI Data  Bond yields typically increase following major data releases such as payrolls, ISM, and CPI, but in recent years, they have shown a more pronounced rise after payroll reports. Stock movements, however, tend to be less influenced by these releases, except for the ISM data, which...

Mixed CPI Report Sparks Debate on Potential Rate Cuts  The latest CPI report exceeded expectations in three out of four key metrics, with only headline CPI slightly below the anticipated 0.4%. This has sparked discussion among analysts about whether it's enough to prompt an earlier rate cut. While some believe it could influence a cut in Septe...

Market Dynamics and Fed Speculation: Impact on CPI and Rate Cuts  Right after last month's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation higher than expected for the fifth consecutive month... ... the market gave up hope for an imminent interest rate cut, reducing expectations for easing to just over one cut, likely in late 2024. W...

Inflation Concerns Resurface: Market Reacts to CPI Data and Geopolitical Tensions  Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reminded everyone that inflation is still a concern. Despite brushing off the higher inflation data in January and February, the market took notice of March's hotter inflation reading. This shifted expectations of when t...

CPI Surges: Energy & Services Drive Unexpected Inflation Jump  After consistently rising month-over-month for the past five months, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was anticipated to show a modest slowdown in March, from a 0.4% increase to a 0.3% increase. However, it unexpectedly rose by 0.4%, equaling the highest level since August 2023, ...

Inflation Jitters Grip Treasury Market Ahead of CPI Release  The Treasury market is noticeably anxious as we approach this week's inflation report, especially given recent stronger-than-expected payrolls data. Bond traders are increasingly skeptical about the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation target, which suggests that there's a higher l...