US Inflation Slows in Latest CPI Report, Boosting Fed Optimism The latest consumer price data out of the United States suggested a gentle rise in overall prices. The general pace at which prices increased came in softer than anticipated, reflecting a more subdued inflation trend. The monthly gain was relatively low and did not meet earlier ex...
US Tariff Revenue Hits Record, But Government Spending Surges There is a mixture of positive and troubling developments when it comes to the financial outlook of the country in recent months. On the surface, one of the most recent months brought some uplifting figures. A significant surplus was recorded, among the highest in the nation's hist...
Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks Amid Fed Inaction and Market Stress In mid-April, during a period of financial turbulence sparked by events connected to former President Trump, concern swept through markets as bond yields surged. There was speculation that countries such as China and Japan might be offloading their holdings of United States ...
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Markets Eye Future Signals The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest decision regarding interest rates on Wednesday, with the announcement expected in the evening. Following the announcement, Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, which is anticipated to begin shortly after. Unlike some p...
Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 18 : Stocks Rise on Trade Optimism, Strong Tech Earnings, and Jobs Data Stocks in the United States continued to trend upward, building on a wave of optimism that began earlier in the month. The positive momentum appeared to be driven by a combination of easing trade tensions and earnings reports from prominent c...
Jobs Report Looms as Market Eyes Impact of Tariffs and Layoffs The current landscape surrounding the U.S. labor market is filled with tension and anticipation. There has been a noticeable divergence between soft indicators and hard data. While confidence-based indicators and survey data have been deteriorating, official employment metrics rem...
Consumer Debt Surges as Savings Decline and Credit Card Use Soars For quite some time, we have emphasized that with personal savings dwindling—particularly the extra funds accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic—American consumers would eventually face a reckoning. Despite efforts to present economic data in a more favorable light, the reali...
US Economy : Strong Growth, Resilient Labor, But Manufacturing Weakens The final third-quarter GDP reading revealed a more robust US economic performance than initially anticipated. Economic growth was revised upward to 3.1% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis, surpassing the earlier estimate of 2.8%. Personal consumption also saw an u...
Political Instability in France Shakes Markets, US Economy Shows Resilience Political instability in France has once again seized the spotlight as financial markets respond to the anticipated collapse of Michel Barnier's government. The mounting tension has been fueled by Marine Le Pen's RN party, which announced its intention to collaborate ...
Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 46 : Global Markets Face Volatility Amid Policy Shifts and Economic Data The past week brought significant developments across global markets, influenced by political transitions in the United States, mixed economic data releases, and evolving corporate strategies. Investor sentiment was shaped by uncertainties s...
Goldman Sachs 2025 Outlook: US Growth, Tariff Risks, and Market Trends It may have been overshadowed by the current anticipation surrounding Trump's policy announcements—which are expected to reshape the economic landscape—but Goldman Sachs recently released its comprehensive 2025 year-ahead reports. These include in-depth analyses of markets...
ECB Cuts Rate to 3.25%, Signals Growth Concerns as US Data Surges Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) made an expected move by cutting its deposit facility rate to 3.25%. This decision didn't come as a surprise, as the market had already priced in this outcome through OIS futures. All 65 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, including our ow...
Q3 Earnings Growth Reliant on 7 Mega-Cap Firms, Recession Risk Persists Yesterday, while reviewing the Q3 earnings season outlook, something notable emerged: Bank of America reported that overall Q3 earnings were expected to grow by a modest 4%, entirely driven by a 19% rise in the earnings of the "Mag 7" companies. This marks a drop from 37%...
Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade as Strong US Economic Data Boosts Uncertainty Expectations for swift interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are once again facing challenges, bringing renewed uncertainty to stock markets. Recent strong economic data from the US has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4%, its highest level since early August....
Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 30 : Global Markets Slide as U.S. Labor Market Cools, Tech Stocks Fall Global Markets Weekly Update U.S. Market Reactions to Economic Data and Earnings Reports This week saw significant declines in major U.S. stock indexes due to disappointing economic data and mixed earnings reports. The S&P 500 fell, influe...
US Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations with 0.6% June Increase In June, U.S. industrial production saw a better-than-expected increase of 0.6% month-over-month (MoM), surpassing the anticipated 0.3% rise but not as strong as the 0.9% increase in May. This brought the annual growth rate to 1.6%, the highest since October 2022. Manufactu...
US PMIs Surpass Expectations, Contrast Sharp Declines in Europe Following this morning's disappointing European PMI data, the preliminary June US PMI figures were anticipated to see a slight decline but still remain in expansion territory (above 50) for both manufacturing and services Contrary to expectations given the poor US macroeconomic d...
US Job Growth Plunges: Biggest Miss Since 2021 Prior to today's release of the payrolls report, our earlier analysis anticipated a slowdown, questioning its magnitude. We also speculated whether Yellen had disclosed a weaker figure to Japan before their interventions this week, aiming to avoid unnecessary capital loss. The Bureau of Labor Sta...
US GDP Plunges in Q1, Raises Stagflation Fears If the Biden administration wanted the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates and implementing monetary easing before the election, they would need to see signs of significant economic decline in the US right about now. That's why it's not surprising that the Biden Bureau of Ec...
Debate Rages on Wall Street: Are Interest Rate Hikes Fueling US Economic Growth? As the US economy continues to perform strongly month after month, creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs and surprising experts who had predicted a looming downturn, some on Wall Street are beginning to consider a fringe economic theory. They're questioning ...