Upcoming July Rate Cut May Trigger Biggest Market Shock of the Year  Biden's tendency to distort economic data to make it appear stronger than it is in order to gain more votes has turned the analysis of nearly everything into a nightmare. We have now reached a point where any further data manipulations are as evident as Biden's dementia, some...

Fed's Reverse Repo Usage Drops Amid Renewed Financial System Stress  The Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo facility usage has decreased by $220 billion in the past two days, reflecting a decline in demand similar to the stress observed in December, rather than previous quarter-ends. However, this decrease is less pronounced than the $313 billion ...

Surge in Government Job Openings While Private Sector Declines  Following two months of significant drops in job openings, the Biden administration's Department of Labor announced a surprising increase in May. Job openings rose by 221,000, reaching 8.140 million, surpassing the forecast of 7.950 million. This came after April's figures were re...

Hedge Funds Aggressively Sell Tech Stocks Amid Record Highs  Last week, tech stocks reaching new record highs daily, Goldman's prime brokerage noted significant net selling of tech stocks by hedge funds over the past month, particularly in the Semiconductor and Semiconductor Equipment sectors, with Nvidia reversing its year-to-date trend. June...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 26 : French and UK Bond Yields Rise as Elections Approach  French and UK Bond Yields Rise Ahead of Elections U.S. Small Caps and Tech Stocks Lead in Quiet Week Most major U.S. stock indexes saw gains in a relatively uneventful week, attributed to a lull before the release of second-quarter earnings reports, accord...

Election Risk Creeps into Markets: Investors Brace for Volatility  In a year marked by complacency and widespread option selling, the S&P 500 has enjoyed an almost uninterrupted rise, nearing 400 trading days without a 2% drop. It's no wonder that the upcoming elections haven't garnered much attention, despite their potential significant i...

Q1 GDP Growth at 1.4%, Consumer Spending Drops, Inflation Rises  No one paid much attention to today's final Q1 GDP figure, which is understandable since it reflects a period that ended over three months ago. Nonetheless, there were two key points worth noting: the GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, slightly above last quarter's downward ...

Strategists Cautious on European Stocks Amid Political Uncertainty  European stocks are expected to show limited growth potential, according to strategists who are taking a cautious approach due to upcoming elections in France that could significantly impact economic policy. The Stoxx Europe 600 is predicted to end the year at 517 points, clos...

Fed Reduces 2024 Rate Cut Projections Despite Softer April Inflation  U.S. inflation eased in April according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday. Despite this softer inflation data, Federal Reserve policymakers reduced their expectations for interest rate cuts this year. The new dot plot published on Wednesday showed ...

Federal Reserve's Role: Economic Instability and Wealth Inequality  Few events in financial news garner as much attention as an announcement from the Federal Reserve. About eight times a year, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee convenes to decide and announce its monetary policy plans. These announcements can significantly imp...

CBO Projects Rising US Deficits and Global Fiscal Tightening Challenges  Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, discussed insights from the latest report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO): "The CBO estimates the 2024 deficit will be 7% of GDP, with the 2034 deficit projected at 6.9% of GDP. This implies a 7% annual...

Global Economic Crisis Looms: Japan's $63B Treasury Liquidation Sparks Fears  In a recent interview, Greg Hunter and Bill Holter discussed the precarious state of the global economy. They emphasized the potential for a widespread financial crisis, citing Japan's banking giant Norinchukin liquidating $63 billion in treasuries and European bonds...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 25 : Stocks Gain, Broader Market Moves, and Economic Data Insights  U.S. Stocks See Gains Amid Broader Market MovementsStocks showed moderate gains over a shortened trading week with markets closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday These gains helped push the S&P 500 Index to new all-time highs The week ...

US PMIs Surpass Expectations, Contrast Sharp Declines in Europe  Following this morning's disappointing European PMI data, the preliminary June US PMI figures were anticipated to see a slight decline but still remain in expansion territory (above 50) for both manufacturing and services Contrary to expectations given the poor US macroeconomic d...

Goldman Sachs Shifts Focus to Middle-Income Consumers Amid Market Woes  Two months ago, Goldman's Prime Brokerage desk observed hedge funds quietly liquidating their consumer exposure prompting the bank to ask if something changed Following notable blow-ups in the consumer discretionary space the answer was yes because the XLY consumer discret...

Rising Stock Market Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainty  The latest consumer survey data from the New York Federal Reserve provided intriguing insights. According to the New York Fed, expectations that stock prices will rise in the next 12 months increased from 39% to 41% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, inflation expectations slightl...

PPI Falls Unexpectedly, Jobless Claims Surge: Economic Reality Check  After a softer-than-expected CPI report triggered a buying frenzy in stocks and bonds (until Powell dampened the enthusiasm), today's PPI is anticipated to be mixed, with a smaller month-over-month increase but a higher year-over-year rise, surpassing the 12-month highs reco...

Fed Members' 2024 Rate Predictions Shift to Higher Levels, No Dissent  In March, 10 Federal Reserve members predicted that interest rates would be at 4.625 percent or lower by the end of 2024, but now, none hold that view June Dots Summary No Cuts: 4 (previously 2 in March) 1 Cut: 7 (previously 2 in March) 2 Cuts: 8 (previously 5 in March) 3 C...

May CPI Unchanged, Energy Prices Drop; Core CPI Falls to 3-Year Low  In May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed no change month-over-month (MoM), marking the smallest shift since July 2022 and slightly below the anticipated +0.1% MoM increase. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, headline CPI rose by 3.3%, just under the expected 3.4%,...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 23 : U.S. Services Surge While Manufacturing Faces Ongoing Challenges  U.S. Market Update Key market indices had mixed results this week The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record intraday highs while smaller-cap indices saw declines Growth stocks significantly outperformed value stocks driven by falling long...