Global Economic Outlook Faces Strain Amid US Tariffs and Slowdown  This past week, a comprehensive update was shared through a semi-annual collaborative review conducted within the Morgan Stanley Research department. This mid-year outlook brings together insights from both economics and strategy perspectives to map out expectations for the mon...

Inflation Beyond Fed's Control Rises, Keeping CPI Elevated Longer  Inflation that lies outside the Federal Reserve's direct influence is experiencing an upward trend, which implies the Consumer Price Index may remain elevated for a prolonged period. In response, longer-term yields exhibit an upward bias over the medium and extended time horizo...

Updated Rate Outlook: Anticipating 2-3 Fed Cuts Amid Market Volatility  As we focus on the Fed's upcoming announcement on July 31st, we want to reiterate our prediction of two to three rate cuts this year, totaling 75 basis points. We also have some updated thoughts based on recent developments. Current yields for two-year and ten-year bonds a...