US Stock Futures Drop as Treasury Yields Surge Toward Key Level  US stock futures are slipping ahead of the market opening, continuing the decline seen after the recent government debt auction. This movement in the equity market is happening alongside a noticeable increase in US Treasury yields this morning. The uptick in yields follows the Se...

Inflation Beyond Fed's Control Rises, Keeping CPI Elevated Longer  Inflation that lies outside the Federal Reserve's direct influence is experiencing an upward trend, which implies the Consumer Price Index may remain elevated for a prolonged period. In response, longer-term yields exhibit an upward bias over the medium and extended time horizo...

This week in the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 saw its recent six-week streak of gains come to an end, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields. As Treasury market futures indicate a potential flattening of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting trajectory, equities appeared to respond accordingly. Large-cap stocks showed more resilience compared ...

Revisiting Rate Outlook Amid Political Reactions and Fed Anticipations  As the 10-year Treasury approaches the lower end of our 4.3% to 4.5% range, amidst analyzing jobs data and preparing for the Federal Reserve's next moves, it's a fitting moment to reassess and clarify our rate outlook. Before delving deeper, it's prudent to consider the po...

Earlier today, it was emphasized that on Wall Street, the prevailing consensus view, particularly regarding the strong conviction that Treasury yields would decline in 2024, was unlikely to materialize. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey from January illustrated an unprecedented level of expert conviction in an imminent recession.As ...