10-Year Treasury Auction Falls Short Despite Strong Expectations  Following the impressive performance of the previous day's three-year bond auction, many anticipated that the sale of ten-year Treasury bonds would also yield strong results. This expectation was reinforced by a significant movement in yields after the latest Consumer Price Inde...

Stock Market Holds Strong Despite Inflation, Tariffs, and Trade Wars  In recent weeks, there have been many headlines capturing attention, from the rise of DeepSeek's AI technology to Donald Trump's tariffs. However, these issues have yet to dampen the generally positive outlook in the stock market. The optimism surrounding the economy and the...

Market Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Policy Outlook  After the market experienced extreme fluctuations throughout recent years in response to inflation data the focus gradually shifted from inflation concerns to employment metrics Conventional wisdom suggested that inflation was under control which left the labor market as the primary d...

Treasury's 3-Year Bond Auction Sees Strong Demand and Record Metrics  The latest auction of three-year Treasury notes was a remarkable success, standing in stark contrast to the previous four underwhelming sales. The issuance of $58 billion in three-year securities yielded exceptional results, drawing strong demand from investors. The final yi...

We are now in the fourth week of President Trump's term, and his approach to tariffs has evolved significantly. Initially, tariffs were primarily used as a tool to address fentanyl and immigration issues. However, the focus has recently shifted towards securing the supply chain. Over the weekend, Trump announced a new set of tariffs, imposing a 25%...

Weekly Economic Insights Inflation Trade Policy and Market Trends  The week following payroll reports is generally uneventful but due to the timing this month economic data releases are packed together making it an active period The first major report is the US Consumer Price Index which is scheduled for midweek followed by the Producer Price ...

Global Bond Market Shifts as Central Banks Cut Balance Sheets  Central banks across the world are reducing their balance sheets at a swift pace, which is contributing to an upward pressure on bond yields. The significant gap in demand creates a heightened risk of abrupt fluctuations in the bond market, even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ...

Retail Investors Outmaneuver Hedge Funds Amid Market Shifts  Retail investors seem to be outmaneuvering their well-compensated hedge fund counterparts once again. For five consecutive weeks, hedge funds were engaged in a selling streak, while retail investors went on an aggressive buying spree, surpassing even the enthusiasm witnessed during t...

Clearwater Consulting LLC – Exceptional Results and Exciting Updates  Dear Investors and Interested Parties, looking back, the past year presented its share of challenges. The markets were consistently rallying, which led us to rethink our strategy. To adapt effectively, we focused on capturing smaller, shorter-term profits rather than aiming ...

Thank You for an Amazing Year – Wishing You a Joyful Christmas and a Bright New Year!  As we approach the end of another remarkable year, we want to take a moment to reflect on the journey we've shared. This year brought its fair share of challenges and obstacles, but with your unwavering support, trust, and patience, we've been able to overco...

US Economy : Strong Growth, Resilient Labor, But Manufacturing Weakens  The final third-quarter GDP reading revealed a more robust US economic performance than initially anticipated. Economic growth was revised upward to 3.1% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis, surpassing the earlier estimate of 2.8%. Personal consumption also saw an u...

Fed Revises Inflation, Interest Rate Outlook Amid Policy Shifts  The Federal Reserve has decisively determined that Trump's policies will lead to inflationary pressures. Despite the necessity of implementing a rate cut today, the Fed significantly raised its inflation and interest rate projections, aligning more closely with the market's hawki...

FOMC Outlook, Treasury Yields, Inflation Trends, and Crypto Insights  It feels somewhat out of character to admit that I don't feel particularly invested in the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this time around, but that is indeed the case. The entire situation feels like a foregone conclusion, with the narrative aro...

US Services Surge as Manufacturing Hits a 55-Month Low in December  Europe's latest PMI data presented a mixed scenario, with the manufacturing sector facing steeper contractions, while services showed resilience, helping to stabilize composite indices in key economies like France, Germany, and the UK. Despite this support from the services se...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 50 : U.S. Stock Markets End Mixed Amid Growth Stock Optimism and Divergences U.S. stock markets witnessed a mixed performance throughout a dynamic week, as major indexes reflected contrasting trends. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all continued to climb to fresh record hig...

Treasury 30-Year Auction Ends Weekly Issuance on a Disappointing Note  the Treasury concluded its weekly round of coupon issuance with a lackluster thirty-year auction that sent yields climbing to their session highs. The latest sale involved a $22 billion reopening of thirty-year notes, specifically the 29-year and 11-month cusip UE6, which c...

Swiss National Bank Cuts Rates by 50bp Amid Easing Inflation Pressures  Once more, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has caught markets off guard with an unexpected 50 basis points (bp) rate cut, deviating significantly from the anticipated 25bp reduction. This bold move has lowered the SNB's key interest rate to 0.5%, down from the previous 1%, s...

Inflation Beyond Fed's Control Rises, Keeping CPI Elevated Longer  Inflation that lies outside the Federal Reserve's direct influence is experiencing an upward trend, which implies the Consumer Price Index may remain elevated for a prolonged period. In response, longer-term yields exhibit an upward bias over the medium and extended time horizo...

Producer Prices Surge as Inflation Hits Highest Level Since Feb 2023  Following yesterday's news about the re-emergence of consumer price inflation, there seemed to be a wave of optimism as people reacted to the report being "in line with expectations." However, one might wonder since when the Federal Reserve's mandate has been to ensure stabl...

ECB Cuts Rates to 3.0%, Signals Shift Toward Neutral Policy Stance  The European Central Bank (ECB), as anticipated, implemented a modest interest rate cut of 25 basis points during its most recent policy meeting. This decision avoided the steeper 50 basis point reduction that some analysts had suggested was necessary, particularly given the o...